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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) $11K Resistance Signaling Further Downside

Earlier in July, I anticipated higher highs in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) when the cryptocurrency appeared to be holding above $10000. However, price did NOT extend above the June high and instead found resistance at $13000. This reflected a bullish market that is exhausted and in consolidation mode.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

Bearish Correction:

  • Within this consolidation mode, we saw price push to almost the $9000 mark. So, price made a lower high and then a lower low.

  • Still, this could be just a completed ABC correction pattern, with a bullish continuation ahead.

  • However, the recent resistance at $11000 suggests that bears are still in control within this consolidation mode. This means, we might see further downside.

  • I think it is futile to pick the bottom.

  • Instead of picking one spot to buy from, I have spread dry powder from $6000 to $9000.

  • Within this strategy, I have more weight around the $6000 area.

  • I think at this point, $6000 would be a hard support to break.

Bearish Signs in the 4H Chart:

  • The 4H chart shows a market that might be shifting into a bearish trend in the short-term. (a correction against the medium-term bullish trend over the past few months)

  • Price has broken below the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs). Price also treated this cluster as resistance, which is a bearish sling-shot signal.

  • The RSI has also held under 60 after it dipped below 30. This also reflects a market with bearish momentum.

  • With this dynamic, I think there is a good chance price will revisit $8000.


BTC/USD 4H Chart


Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Consolidation is Likely Over; Higher High in Sight