Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been in the doldrums since mid-January. We noted in late January that it broke below a key support and opened up the $3200 and $3000 levels. However, we recently saw price jump up from the $3420 area to tag $3800. We did propose that a break above $3760 might open up the $4425 to $4500 area, which were highs/resistance in December and January. So should we be looking for a rally towards these December/January highs? Maybe, but I still think there is more downside risk.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
Structure is still Bearish:
While it is true that price pushed above $3760, we should note that it found resistance at $3800 and is pulling back already.
Price respected a resistance pivot established in January around $3875.
Price is still under the 200-, 500-, and even the 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
The RSI is still under 60 after it went below 30 in late 2018 - this reflects maintenance of the prevailing bearish momentum.
Finally, we can just look at the general price structure, we can say that the market is bearish-neutral. In this type of market, there is likely still a lot of downside risk.
When we look at the volume, we can see that there is a bit of a jump relative to recent volume, which has been low. However, it is still relatively low compared to the November-December period, when the market was selling sharply. So while the volume is a good indicator of some demand above $3000, it is too early to have relative significance to the bearish volume in Nov/Dec.
At this point, I am still keeping my dry powder around $3000 and even some below. It will take some more strong bullish price action to convince me that BTC/USD has already bottomed.