In February, the market cap of crypto market rose from $111.25 Billion to over $143B, which is a high on the year.
While this brought some excitement for speculators, the overall structure of the market is still bearish. For example, Litecoin (LTC/USD) rallied from a low around $23 to almost $55 by the 2/24/2019 session. But I think there is some resistance here, and we should expect a bearish swing heading into March.
LTC/USD Daily Chart
The daily chart shows that price and the RSI are forming a bearish divergence.
Also note that this is occurring at the bottom of a previous consolidation period between August and November in 2018.
The bearish divergence simply reveals to us that this former support area is acting like resistance against a sharp bullish swing.
There is a very short-term pivot in the $47-$48 area. If LTC/USD sees price come off the bearish divergence and break below $47, I think it has another bearish swing at least to the $36 area.
We should be aware of the halving that is probably going to happen in March.
However, we should also be cautious of the “sell-the-news” dynamic, especially if price is rallying ahead of the anticipated event. This could be the case for LTC/USD, although the rally was mostly a general crypto rally.
I think instead of having a very bullish effect, the halving is more of a supportive, or anti-bearish event.
I think it will give LTC/USD some resilience IF the general crypto market contracts again.
However, unless crypto mania is back, I don’t see the halving as that much fuel for LTC/USD because it is probably already priced in.