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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Moves Below Critical Support; Opens Up $3200 and $3000

Bitcoin $BTCUSD has been consolidating since December, but looks ready for another bearish swing.

In the previous look at the price action, we saw BTC/USD testing a key support around $3460.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Bearish and Knocking on Key Support Pivot

Price consolidated in a relatively narrow range between $3500 and $3600 for a few sessions before finally breaking below the $3460 support during the 1/28 session.

BTC/USD 4H Chart

Bears in Charge:

  • During the consolidation, we saw some sideways action and some bullish attempts.

  • However, we can see that the major highs in the consolidation continued to be lower and lower, a sign that bulls were weak and bears were in charge.

  • Furthermore, we saw bears really take over after 1/11/2019 when price came down below the 200-4h simple moving average (SMA) and stayed under it since.

  • The RSI has also started to reflect the more bearish momentum that has developed in the second half of the month.

  • In the short-term, there is downside back towards the $3160-$3200 lows from December 2018.

  • But if price does reach these lows, given the prevailing bearish market structure, we should anticipate further downside to at least test the $2950-$3000 area.

  • As far as resistance, the previous support area around $3500 could turn into a selling area.

  • But if price extend higher, the next line of defense for the bearish scenario will be $3660 and then $3760.

  • A break above $3760 takes away the bearish outlook and would suggest further sideways consolidation and maybe a recovery rally towards the $4425 resistance pivot within this consolidation context.

  • On the daily chart, we can see that the bearish momentum remains intact - seeing that the RSI held under 60 after coming up from below 30 in November.

  • With this bearish momentum, I think there is a strong possibility of pushing towards the $3000 to test that support/resistance pivot right around $2985.

  • If the support does not hold here the next critical support will be around $1850, with $2000 as the psychological support. So $1850-$2000 could be next below $2900.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

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