Bitcoin $BTCUSD has been consolidating since December, but looks ready for another bearish swing.
In the previous look at the price action, we saw BTC/USD testing a key support around $3460.
Price consolidated in a relatively narrow range between $3500 and $3600 for a few sessions before finally breaking below the $3460 support during the 1/28 session.
BTC/USD 4H Chart
Bears in Charge:
During the consolidation, we saw some sideways action and some bullish attempts.
However, we can see that the major highs in the consolidation continued to be lower and lower, a sign that bulls were weak and bears were in charge.
Furthermore, we saw bears really take over after 1/11/2019 when price came down below the 200-4h simple moving average (SMA) and stayed under it since.
The RSI has also started to reflect the more bearish momentum that has developed in the second half of the month.
In the short-term, there is downside back towards the $3160-$3200 lows from December 2018.
But if price does reach these lows, given the prevailing bearish market structure, we should anticipate further downside to at least test the $2950-$3000 area.
As far as resistance, the previous support area around $3500 could turn into a selling area.
But if price extend higher, the next line of defense for the bearish scenario will be $3660 and then $3760.
A break above $3760 takes away the bearish outlook and would suggest further sideways consolidation and maybe a recovery rally towards the $4425 resistance pivot within this consolidation context.
On the daily chart, we can see that the bearish momentum remains intact - seeing that the RSI held under 60 after coming up from below 30 in November.
With this bearish momentum, I think there is a strong possibility of pushing towards the $3000 to test that support/resistance pivot right around $2985.
If the support does not hold here the next critical support will be around $1850, with $2000 as the psychological support. So $1850-$2000 could be next below $2900.
BTC/USD Daily Chart