Alas, the crypto market may not have bottomed yet. We saw a good run in the past few weeks fueled by the possibility of an ETF being approved.
However, after the Winklevoss ETF was rejected, the mood soured. Now, the SEC has delayed its judgement on CBOE's SolidX fund.
There are 2 funds, including SolidX, slated for decision in Q3 this year, and another one in Q1 of 2019. It sounds like we might not get an approval in 2018. And unless we have established qualified custodians in this space, ETFs won't be approved until after Q1 as well. With that being said, the pace of development can be jumpy.
For example, we have a positive development headed by Jeff Specher, the Chairman of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE):
Bakkt—a play on the word ‘backed’ from the phrase ‘asset-backed securities’—is Specher’s latest venture, and aims to achieve nothing short of making bitcoin a trusted global currency by creating a federally-regulated crypto ecosystem.
This vision is supported by Microsoft, who will lend its cloud expertise; Starbucks, which will help pioneer mobile payment, and the Boston Consulting Group, who will assist ICE in forming the new company—an all-in-one bitcoin exchange for trading, custody and delivery, that will use ICE’s existing trading infrastructure to cater to retail investors, institutional investors and consumers.
With the full force of these industry leaders behind them, the launch is planned for November, after fourteen months of behind the scenes preparation by founder Specher and his wife Kelly Loeffler, who is Bakkt CEO.
I also found this to be a pretty good coverage of the whole ETF drama. It paints the view that ETF is right around the corner, although the current ecosystem is not ready for it yet according the SEC:
According to coinmarketcap.com, the entire crypto space is at it's lower on the year, at $223B, which was not seen since November 2017.
Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin is just above the lows on the year:
BTC/USD Daily Chart
- The ability to push above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) meant that bulls were weak.
- The inability to hold above $6800 meant that bears are back in control.
- The bearish momentum could extend the current dip towards the next couple of key support levels around $5600 and $5000.
- If we find a bullish divergence between price and the RSI while price is in this area, we should anticipate a bullish attempt back towards the $8000 area.
- Remember, the denial of ETF and the subsequent delay in decision does NOT mean there won't be an ETF in 2019.
- As we get closer to the end of the year, we should see more anticipation of an approval that can drive price back up.
- But in August, I think the bloodletting will continue in Bitcoin as well as the Alts.