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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) at a Crossroad after Retreat

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) failed to push above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and has been retreating for a couple of weeks. It is now right around the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. 

BTC/USD Daily Chart

The ability to hold above $6800 would be a bullish signal. In this scenario, we should see bitcoin challenge the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), with upside to $9930 if it does cross above the 200-day SMA. Otherwise, we are likely looking at a bearish continuation towards the $5600 and $5000 lows. 

If price holds above $6800, the daily RSI is also going to hold above 40. This would be another bullish signal - the RSI pushing above 70, and then holding above 40 on a pullback. 

Price action so far favors the bearish outlook although we don't have a clean break below $6800 yet. A rebound back above $7000 would be a sign that the market is defending the previous price bottom. We can then anticipate a run to $8000, and eventually $9300. 


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