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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Choppy Ahead of SEC's Decision on 8/23

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been consolidating above $6000 and recently got into a range between $6200 and $6600. I noted that bitcoin's price bottom attempt looked weak. ut, instead of continuing the July-August downtrend, it broke above $6600. 

The bullish breakout was brief and the market soon faded this rally, sending price back into the consolidation area. If price does not stay above $6400, we should consider that bullish breakout a false breakout. This type of price action would confirm the weakness of the price bottom attempt.

BTC/USD 4H Chart

  • As we can see, the break above $6600 completed a price bottom.
  • However, price is retreating just as fast, and threatening to break below the $6400 area, which would be a support pivot IF the market is indeed bullish.
  • Instead, a break below $6400 would put pressure back towards $6200, $6000. 

Short-Squeeze? 

  • So what happened  here? To me, it is just noise ahead of SEC's decision of ProShare's Bitcoin ETF. I think the market is expecting a a rejection, but wants to keep hope alive. That's what this price action is telling me.
  • There is also the fact that shorts on bitcoin was near all-time-high, setting it up for a short-squeeze.
    Bets Against Bitcoin's Price Are Nearing Record Highs (Coindesk)
  • Because this rally occurred during Bitmex's maintenance downtime, there are opinions that there was a "forced short-squeeze" during this time, when bitmex trader's (who are the shorts), were not able to trade. 
    Crypto Markets See Green Amid Talk of 'Forced Short Squeeze' on BitMEX (Cointelegraph)
  • At the end of the day, the market is jumpy ahead of another SEC announcement, which will likely end up disappointing speculators. 
  • With the short-squeeze out of the way, Bitcoin has even more likelihood of falling below $6000 after the 8/23 SEC decision. 
    SEC Faces Thursday Deadline for ProShares Bitcoin ETF Decision (Coindesk)
  • Of course, a surprise positive decision would likely send Bitcoin surging above $7000 and likely towards $8000 by next week. 

SEC Rejects 9 ETFs (as Expected) - Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Unaffected

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Shows Bearish Bias in Price Bottom Attempt