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Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Short-term Bulls vs. Medium-term Bears in a Long-term Bull Market

Let's take a look at bitcoin's price action in 3 separate time-frames. Let's define the terms short-term, medium-term, and long-term as such:

  1. Short-term (month or two)
  2. Medium-term (a few months to a year)
  3. Over a year and the span of several years. 

BTC/USD Still Bullish in the Short-term: 4H Chart

  • BTC/USD formed a double bottom above $5800 in June.
  • It then completed an overall inverted head-and-shoulders pattern by mid-July.
  • After the price bottom, price has been bullish.
  • Note that the RSI showed a bearish divergence, which suggested some pullback. We did indeed see some pullback when price tested $8500. 
  • However, there is also a POSITIVE REVERSAL signal, which suggests some further upside in the short-term.
  • a Positive Reversal refers to the higher lows in price corresponding to the lower low in RSI. This suggests that even though momentum has slowed, the trend was still bullish.
  • The fact that price is trading above the key moving averages in the 4H chart also reflects a bullish market, especially after the recent bounce from the 50-period SMA.

BTC/USD in Consolidation/Correction Mode in the Medium-Term: Daily Chart

  • If we look at price action over the span of a year, we can see that the late-2017 bubble has been deflating throughout 2018. 
  • In the medium-term, price is neutral to bearish. 
  • Note that price has been held under the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) since March.
  • Also, when the RSI came up to the overbought area, a bearish swing soon followed.
  • Now price is again tagging the 200-day simple moving average, with the RSI in the overbought area. 
  • Considering the momentum in the 4H chart, we should not rely on the $8500 for resistance. 
  • Instead, we should probably anticipate some more upside towards $9000 before looking for the sell-off. 
  • A bearish divergence should give us more confidence of an impending sell-off. 
  • If price subsequently falls back below the 200-day SMA, we can say that Bitcoin is still in consolidation, and would have the $5500-$6000 in sight.
  • BUT, if price turns down but starts anchoring above the $6800 area, we should anticipate a strong bull run that might challenge the $11700-$1200 area. 

Bulls in Charge in the Long-term: Weekly Chart

  • In a bullish market, the RSI should hold above 40 and price should be above the 200-period simple moving average.
  • On the the weekly chart, we can see that the RSI dipped to almost 40, but is turning up.
  • This reflects maintenance of the long-term bullish momentum.
  • Price is also above the 200- and 100-week (SMAs).
  • Strong bullish price action in the past couple of weeks broke above a falling resistance.
  • Still, we should respect the fact that we have been seeing lower highs since the beginning of the year. 
  • The previous high was around $9930, so it might be prudent to anticipate at least a short-term high/resistance around $9000.

General Strategy:

Partial Buy Levels: $3000, $5500, $6850
Partial Exit Levels: $9000, $10000, $11700

Note that if price is able to reach $11700, we should limit the bearish outlook because this would break the pattern of lower highs, and suggest a bullish shift. In this scenario, we would raise our subsequent re-buy levels, or short-cover levels to around $8000, $7400, and lowest at $6800. 

Anticipating the SEC's Decision on CBOE's SolidX Bitcoin ETF: 

The main narrative these days is that a crypto-ETF approval would be the catalyst for a Bitcoin bull run. The prospect of approval has fueled the recent rally. However, the Winklevoss Twin's ETF proposal was rejected by the SEC. But the more important CBOE ETF still awaits decision.

We should be careful not to chase a bull run after the news. It might be the case that an ETF-approval is a good long-term event. But in the short-term, if price has already rallied ahead of such an approval, we should anticipate a "sell-on-the-news" retracement. This might be case for the CBOE ETF. An approval might provide a short-term spike, after which we should anticipate a sharp pullback. Rejection on the other hand might prompt BTC to give back its gains over the past couple of weeks. At this point, we should monitor the $6800-$7000 to see if bulls still has control.



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