The crypto market has been dismal in 2018, and the May-June months have been especially bearish. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) for example, fell from a high around $9030 to a recent low around $5750. Meanwhile, the total market cap of the entire cryptomarket went from almost $470B at the start of May to a low of about $233B this past week - end of June.
A Hint of Recovery
As we get ready to flip another page on our calendars, the crypto market is percolating a bit. The 6/29-6/30 session saw a recovery in Bitcoin(BTC/USD) from $5790 to tag $6500 , an 11% gain. From the above market cap chart, we can also see a rebound to the $260B area, which was a previous threshold.
But in both cases (total market and just bitcoin), the rebound is still within the context of the overall downtrend. The $6500 serves as a resistance for bitcoin, but if price can show ability to hold above $6000 on a subsequent dip, we might get another bullish attempt, which has upside to that $7000 area.
A Bullish Month Ahead?
While I still think it's prudent to prepare for price down at $5500 and $5000 area, we should also consider a small probability that the market has completed its medium-term bearish cycle (almost 2 months). especially if the $6000 mark continue to give confidence to the speculators in this market.
We might see a month of sideways and even bullish action. In this medium-term outlook, there could be upside to the $8000 area, but I would limit any bullish expectation to that area based on the current stage. Some major catalyst will be needed to really establish a price bottom. For now, it is just bulls and bears fighting it out in the short and medium-term. The long-term trend is at a standstill.