Recently, we proposed that a bullish push above $9000 was going to lift bitcoin (BTC/USD) to the $9900 area. Price rallied sharply indeed above $9000, but found resistance just under $9800, after tagging the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Then it retreated fast during the 4/25 Asian session. The 200-day SMA holding as resistance keeps the bearish outlook alive.
BTC/USD 1H Chart
- The 1H chart shows that price retreated fast from above $9700 to below $9000 within the 4/25/ session, and we still got the US part.
- I think the dip will slow down in the US session as price gets back to its recent consolidation area seen from 4/21 through 4/23.
- I think the most bearish outlook for the session would be the $8600 area, which was the 4/21 session low, which kicked off the consolidation.
- More likely we will see some support around $8800.
- The upside seems limited, but in this volatile environment, a rebound to $9100 or even $9180 would still be within the context of a bearish market.
- The overall market is NOT bullish, but it could be shifting away from a bearish market to a more sideways market. So we can assess bitcoin to be bearish-neutral so far in 2018.
- Within this context, we should not be surprised if the dip extends back to $7500-$7600 area.
- With more bearish signs, I would even look for a dip to $6000 with the possibility of $$5600 as well.
- These bearish targets were always live, but with the reject here at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), they are even more likely.
BTC/USD Daily Chart