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Bitcoin (BTC/USD): The 200-day SMA is Now Resistance

Recently, we proposed that a bullish push above $9000 was going to lift bitcoin (BTC/USD) to the $9900 area. Price rallied sharply indeed above $9000, but found resistance just under $9800, after tagging the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Then it retreated fast during the 4/25 Asian session. The 200-day SMA holding as resistance keeps the bearish outlook alive. 

BTC/USD 1H Chart

Retreat:

  • The 1H chart shows that price retreated fast from above $9700 to below $9000 within the 4/25/ session, and we still got the US part.
  • I think the dip will slow down in the US session as price gets back to its recent consolidation area seen from 4/21 through 4/23.
  • I think the most bearish outlook for the session would be the $8600 area, which was the 4/21 session low, which kicked off the consolidation.
  • More likely we will see some support around $8800. 
  • The upside seems limited, but in this volatile environment, a rebound to $9100 or even $9180 would still be within the context of a bearish market.

Bearish-Neutral:

  • The overall market is NOT bullish, but it could be shifting away from a bearish market to a more sideways market. So we can assess bitcoin to be bearish-neutral so far in 2018. 
  • Within this context, we should not be surprised if the dip extends back to $7500-$7600 area. 
  • With more bearish signs, I would even look for a dip to $6000 with the possibility of $$5600 as well. 
  • These bearish targets were always live, but with the reject here at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), they are even more likely. 

BTC/USD Daily Chart

Crypto Trade Board 4/25/2018

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - Breaks out of Congestion Under $9000; Testing Resistance at $9180