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Has the Bitcoin Market Finally Capitulated?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) broke out of its recent doldrums by rallying sharply from just under $7000 to tag $8000 during the 4/12 session. Then it retreated from this resistance, but it looks like the cryptocurrency could have bottomed. Let's take a look at the charts.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

Capitulation

  • Usually, in a sharp correction like the one we are having in 2018, there is a major sell-off or capitulation before the market really bottoms. 
  • The first time price came down to $6000 in February, the volume was relatively low. 
  • During this recent dip, when price came back towards $6450, we had stronger volume.
  • This is more indicative of capitulation - this looks more like a bottom than back in February.

    Reversal? 
  • To kill the bearish outlook, we will still need to see price clear the $8000 level as well as the falling trendline seen in the daily chart.
  • Then there is key resistance around $10,000, where the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) resides. This can still keep BTC/USD bearish, or at least in a consolidation under $10,000.
  • Above $10,000 BTC/USD starts to shed away the bearish mode. 
  • The 2 things we are looking for to boost the bullish scenario
    1) Price clears $8000. 
    2) Price holds above $7200 if there is a pullback.
     
    Bearish Scenario:
  • A break below $7000 on the other hand should remind us that the overall trend is still bearish. A break below $7000 would put the focus back on $6600 and $6450 April support area. If price makes it back to these levels after this push to $8000, we should not rely on them as support. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart

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