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Bitcoin's Price-Google-Trend Correlation

It should not surprise you that bitcoin's market cap and price chart is almost identical to the google trends chart for terms like "bitcoin" or "btcusd". 

Google Trends: bitcoin (1 year) - bitcoin price/market cap chart (1 year)

  • We can see that the google trends uptick followed price increase.
  • The influx of interest at a time when price was going up definitely amplified the uptrend.
  • The interesting part is that as price falls, so did interest !
  • This is telling us that a lot of that late-2017 rally was fueled by curiosity.
  • Take a look at the google trends chart of cryptography, a key concept behind bitcoin:
Google Trends: "cryptography"

Google Trends: "cryptography"

  • Apparently, the interest for bitcoin did not carry over to curiosity of the tech. 
  • Now, if you look up bitcoin price or BTC/USD, it would reflect the price. 

So What?

  • 2017 was also a strong year for tech stocks like AMZN: AMZN price chart - AMZN

  • As you can see, the correlation is much less acute. We should note that AMZN has been in the news a lot in 2018, 
  • But Amazon has been around for a bit, definitely longer than bitcoin. You can check for yourself, or just take my word for it: most don't have the type of correlation bitcoin price did with its google trend.

Non-Correlation Will be a Good Thing; A Shift in Focus Will Help

  • I believe decoupling of price and google trends will be a sign of maturity. 
  • You might still have some occasional short-term correlations. 
  • I would say that this decoupling will also depend on price stabilization and less sensational media headlines. 
  • I also think that the steady though not explosive growth in the interest in "cryptography" would be a good sign for bitcoin and the crypto space in general.
  • At the end of the day, those who build this space up will be those who are interested in the underlying technology.
  • Speculators will always be helpful in fueling innovation, but at one point if this technology gets adopted, people and businesses will be forced to learn about cryptography and technology, or become irrelevant. 


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