Developers/Developments are Critical :
One of the most important factors to success in the crypto space is probably developer contribution. After all, something like bitcoin is still in its infancy stage and strong development will be needed if it is to be adopted by the masses. For example, one of the main focus of developers these days is scalability, which involves speed, low fees, and viability of micro payments (under $0.01 value).
A project like Bitcoin is open-source with its code on its Github.com repository. Volunteers from around the world can contribute - making suggests for improvements, alterations etc. - Note that these changes have to be approved by the community, and actually executed by the miners. We won’t get into this process here, but it should be noted that it does generate some controversy, which reveals the trade-offs of having an open-source system. (It can become onerous once the community grows and consensus becomes difficult to achieve).
It makes sense therefore, that the more commits a project has, the more likely it is on a good development path. CoinCheckup.com is a site that collects and presents github data on crypto projects (among other data). Let’s take a look at some of these data sets presented on time-series graphs.
Bitcoin is the Busiest of Them All:
While quantity is not always the best marker for something, it does mean a lot paribus ceteris. We have to assume the developers are not just inflating commit numbers and updating willy nilly just to get better analytics.
The above graphs show that bitcoin has the most commits and actual updates (soft-forks) by far. It also looks like it has been busy throughout the year, though developers might be taking their feet off the pedal around the holidays and turn of the year.
Some notable disappointments here are Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin , and EOS - yes I am calling these out. Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin seem to have fizzled after the start of the year when prices were extremely elevated. EOS actually has relatively decent activity level, but the jarring contrast between first half of the year to the second half of the year is concerning especially because it went live right around the middle of the year. Why did development slow down before that - or why was it so extreme right before?
While I won’t write them off as abandoned projects, the github activities are not encouraging. It is possible that just a couple of brilliant updates outvalue a thousand smaller updates, but I think this is mostly wishful thinking than practical analysis.
At the end of day, remember what Joseph Stalin said - “Quantity is a Quality on its Own”